Hurricane Agatha Strengthening South of Mexico | The Weather Channel – Articles from The Weather Channel

As of 4 a.m. CDT Sunday morning, the NHC upgraded the swirl of showers and thunderstorms a couple hundred miles off the southern coast of Mexico to Hurricane Agatha, the first of the east Pacific Hurricane Season.

Agatha underwent rapid intensification Sunday, when maximum sustained winds jumped 35 mph in under 24 hours. It will likely intensify further before landfall anywhere in Chiapas or Oaxaca states.

A hurricane warning is in effect for the southern coast of Mexico from Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua, where hurricane conditions are possible on Monday. Here’s a look at the current watches and warnings.

This system is expected to move slowly northeastward toward the Mexican Pacific coast by Monday, then embed itself in southern Mexico.

Dangerous storm surge flooding and damaging winds are most possible within areas covered by warnings or watches.

Residents and those with vacation plans in those areas, including Acapulco, should monitor the forecast closely for important updates.

Flash Flood, Mudslide Danger

The system’s slow movement means dangerous flash flooding and mudslides are possible in parts of southern Mexico along and east of its path.

But even if Agatha dissipates over land, that’s not necessarily the end of the story.

Agatha’s circulation will pull Pacific moisture across Mexico and Central America for several days this week, where some locations may pick up over 6 inches of rain. Some communities may see up to 20 inches of rain, particularly in Mexico’s Oaxaca state. Portions of Chiapas and Guerrero could also see more than a foot of rain.

Could Eastern Pacific Remnant Spawn a Gulf Storm?

Agatha’s remnants or its broader circulation may reach the Bay of Campeche by the middle of the week where redevelopment is possible.

The National Hurricane Center says this chance is currently low.

But there is some recent precedence of such a Pacific to Atlantic basin crossover.

Near the end of May 2020, Tropical Storm Amanda formed in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, then moved inland and dissipated over the mountains of Guatemala.

But Amanda’s remnant spin above the ground – its “ghost,” if you will – continued moving north and northwest into the Bay of Campeche, the bowl-shaped bay at the southwestern end of the Gulf of Mexico.

Soon after the “ghost” emerged back over water, thunderstorms became more organized and surface low pressure reformed. What would soon become Tropical Storm Cristobal was born.

This “ghost” scenario is what some computer forecast models are suggesting could occur later this week.

Namely, Agatha may dissipate over southern Mexico, but remnant spin from Agatha above the ground could migrate into the Bay of Campeche late this week.

Another possibility is for development to occur over the western Caribbean Sea later this week.

It’s too early to determine which of these scenarios may occur.

But there’s one obstacle a Gulf or western Caribbean system seems likely to face.

The same forecast models suggesting development is possible are also forecasting strong wind shear over the Gulf and the Caribbean Sea this week.

This changing wind speed and/or direction with height tends to tilt or rip apart systems trying to consolidate thunderstorms and become tropical depressions or storms. It’s typically strong in these areas in early June.

Even if a tropical depression were to form in the Bay of Campeche later next week, it could be sheared apart if it tries to move northward in the Gulf of Mexico, if this wind shear forecast holds true.

Or, it could hold together, but be a lopsided depression or tropical storm limited in its intensity by wind shear.

The western Gulf, Bay of Campeche and western Caribbean Sea have historically been hot spots for development in June.

Last year, Tropical Storm Claudette formed, then quickly moved ashore in Louisiana and the Deep South on Father’s Day weekend.

The Upshot

The bottom line is the Eastern Pacific storm poses a danger of flooding rain and mudslides in southern Mexico and parts of Central America into the week ahead. Damaging winds and storm surge flooding can be expected near the coast close to where Agatha tracks.

For now, there’s no threat to the U.S. Gulf Coast, but that could change. Check back with weather.com for updates in the coming days.

It’s another reminder that now is a good time to develop or refresh your hurricane plan well before the season’s first storm or hurricane.

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