Russians are unsure what will happen in Ukraine — but most agree it’s Putin’s call to make

European officials and the U.S. administration have warned for weeks that Russia is on the brink of invading Ukraine.

Back in Russia, there is disagreement among citizens and analysts about Putin’s true intentions — but most believe it’s up to him how the next stage of this conflict plays out.

“It is all in the hands of one guy,” said Yevgenia Albats, a Moscow-based journalist and political scientist. “It is clear that people outside Putin’s close circle don’t have a clue… they don’t understand what ‘Papa’ is going to tell them.” 

Differing views

U.S. and Ukrainian officials estimate that Russia has more than 100,000 troops, along with military hardware, communication equipment and field hospitals, staged near Ukraine’s border.

Some analysts see the build-up as a strategic bluff designed to threaten the U.S. and European countries, which are now engaged in diplomatic discussions with Russia over NATO expansion. But Albats insists Ukraine is the intended target, and that Putin is on a mission to bring it under Russia’s control.

“Putin refuses to recognize that it has been 30 years since the Soviet Union collapsed and Ukraine obtained its sovereignty,” Albats said. “Its people have the right to decide whether it wants to side with Russia or side with the West.”

While Russia denies it is planning to invade Ukraine, it did seize Crimea in 2014, which triggered a war in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region, where Russian-backed separatists are still battling against the Ukrainian military. 

In his remarks Tuesday, Putin, who called Ukraine “an instrument” of the West, questioned what would happen if Ukraine tried to regain control of Crimea. 

“Let’s imagine Ukraine is a NATO member and starts these military operations. Are we supposed to go to war with the NATO bloc? Has anyone given that any thought? Apparently not,” he said.

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Putin’s comments to reporters were the first time in nearly six weeks that he has spoken about the security demands Russia has issued to the West. 

It wants a guarantee that Ukraine will never be allowed to join NATO, as well as a withdrawal of NATO troops and military infrastructure from countries that joined the alliance after 1997.

Putin contends that Russia was betrayed by the West because it disregarded an agreement not to expand NATO after the Cold War, an interpretation Western officials dispute. 

The U.S. has said it would never promise a veto on NATO membership.

The role of Ukraine’s president 

While Ukraine is not on the cusp of joining the security alliance, Albats believe there are a few reasons Putin is drawing these red lines now. 

Albats says that Putin has spent the past two years in isolation, and she believes he has been listening to the concerns and advice from some of his top security officials, whom she described as “hawks.”

She also says that when Ukrainians handed Volodymyr Zelensky a resounding victory in the 2019 presidential election, it signalled that the country was taking a very independent path. 

Zelensky has called for the Minsk Agreements, the process designed to end the ongoing war in Ukraine’s Donbas, to be more “flexible.”

Since 2014, Russian-backed separatists in the self-declared regions of Donetsk and Luhansk have been battling the Ukrainian military, which has resulted in Ukraine losing control of its southeastern border with Russia. 

The Minsk 2 agreement, which hasn’t been implemented, was signed by Russia and Ukraine as well as representatives from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in 2015. It stipulated that border control would be handed back to Ukraine, after local elections are held in Donetsk and Luhansk and the area is granted “special status” under Ukrainian law. 

Zelensky has said he wants the peace process to be re-worked, and include countries like the U.S. and Canada in the negotiations. Meanwhile, Russia, which has denied having troops on the ground in eastern Ukraine, has handed out more than 700,000 Russian passports to residents of Donetsk and Luhansk. 

Albats says Zelensky has tried to limit Russia’s influence in Ukraine. 

Last year, he banned three pro-Russian television channels from Ukrainian airwaves, accusing them of being  “propaganda financed by the aggressor country.”

Blaming Putin

Albats says given that Ukraine is modernizing and expanding its military, a process that has been sped up by the recent shipments of weapons from countries including the U.S. and U.K., Putin may feel now is the best time to launch an invasion. 

“I hate to think that Russia is going to start a major war,” said Albats. “It is totally unacceptable behaviour for the leader of my country.”

Others share that view.

Over the weekend, a statement from the Congress of Russian Intellectuals, which includes human rights advocates, scientists and writers, called for the Kremlin to avoid an “immoral, irresponsible and criminal” war, saying that Russian citizens were becoming “hostages of criminal adventurism.”

On Jan. 27, CBC spoke with a number of people outside of Kiyevsky railway station in Moscow — named after Ukraine’s capital — including Tamara Krivtson, a Russian pensioner, who believes the blame rests squarely on Putin. 

“Our president thinks he is superior in the world,” she said, adding she believes he is foolishly trying to grab Ukraine. “We have enough problems here to solve. [Russians] don’t have enough money.”

Across the square in front of the station, Maxim Kulpin, a construction worker, told CBC that Russia doesn’t need Ukraine. But he disagrees that Putin is the one driving Russia toward war.

“Russia is in a passive role,” he said. “Look at the map of all the NATO bases [around eastern Europe].”

Kulpin said that while he doesn’t think Russia is fuelling the tension, he concedes that war is a real possibility and that he worries for his family and children. 

Cold War tactics 

Not everyone is convinced that war is on the horizon, despite what the U.S. continues to call the threat of an “imminent” invasion. 

Fyodor Lukyanov, chairman of the Moscow-based Council for Foreign and Defence Policy, suggests Russia’s manoeuvres are all part of a primitive but effective “escalation game.”

“After the Cold War, we believed… that this style of diplomacy has gone. But it is back,” said Lukyanov, pointing out that large military drills fit into this strategy. 

Thousands of Russian troops, along with fighter jets, have arrived in Belarus for joint military drills and Russia’s four naval fleets are also holding exercises. 

Lukyanov acknowledges that, “rightly or wrongly,” the Kremlin views Ukraine as “an absolutely existential territory.” But he says Russia is primarily concerned with preventing Ukraine from joining NATO, not “conquering it.”

He says Putin may be making this push now because he sees an opportunity with U.S. President Joe Biden, who he thinks is more concerned about relations with China than Europe, and could advocate for some compromise to quell the escalating tensions. 

The U.S. formally responded to Russia’s security demands last week and Russia is now working on its reply, but said U.S. officials didn’t satisfy its main concerns.

The elusive solution

Still, Lukyanov says that the U.S. and Europe are talking to Russia now more than they were before, and seem open to some changes around arms control and transparency with military exercises. 

“It is always a question about intuition: when to stop, when to start to de-escalate,” Lukyanov said. “To put it frankly, I think [Putin] has a very good feeling of how and when to do it.”

Many Western leaders remain wary. They have promised economic sanctions against Russia if it invades Ukraine, and several countries, including Canada, have started to withdraw staff from embassies in Kyiv and urged their citizens to leave Ukraine.  

Russia contends it isn’t looking to start a war, but its refusal to draw down troops and equipment near Ukraine sends a different signal. 

Few know what Putin’s plan is, and he didn’t elaborate when speaking to reporters on Tuesday, although he did say he was open to more dialogue. 

“I hope that in the end we will find this solution,” Putin said. “But I’m not ready to talk today about what it will be, of course.”